The three NATO countries allocating the largest shares of their economies to core defence are also among the allies reportedly being asked by the Trump administration to soften their warnings about Russia.
Lithuania is projected to spend 5.33% of GDP on core defence in 2026, ahead of Estonia at 5.10% and Latvia at 4.92%, according to NATO estimates. All three already exceed the alliance’s 3.5% core defence target for 2035, agreed as part of a broader 5% spending commitment.
Yet Pentagon officials have privately encouraged the three Baltic governments to moderate their public language toward Moscow, according to a Reuters report citing three European officials and one American official.
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The requests were made in bilateral discussions in recent weeks, Reuters reported. Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby was among the officials conveying the message, according to the agency’s sources.
Separately, Euronews reported that the Baltic countries were not invited to an October US-led meeting in Poland of the Bergen Group, involving Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands. The smaller forum was discussing European defence capabilities and NATO’s future.
Euronews had also reported that Colby urged Baltic officials to take a less confrontational approach toward Russia during an August visit to NATO headquarters, citing American efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
The pressure comes despite a documented security incident in Estonia. On September 29, the Estonian government attributed an August 15 arson attack on a Tallinn facility used by Milrem Robotics to Russian intelligence services, citing findings from its internal security service. The company supplies unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine and the criminal investigation was continuing.
Reuters reported that Colby advised a Baltic official against “poking” Russia and objected to European descriptions of Moscow as trapped or increasingly desperate. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal had used a similar metaphor about President Vladimir Putin in late September, although Reuters could not establish which remark Colby meant.
A Pentagon official told Reuters: “Private conversations among allies are just that, so we will not comment on these allegations.”
The disagreement coincides with a Pentagon review of US troop deployments in Europe, in which Colby plays a significant role, Reuters reported.
